2017美国数学建模MCM A题（连续型）翻译管理赞比西河 Managing The Zambezi River

ゝ一世哀愁。 2022-07-11 07:50 146阅读 0赞

问题A：管理赞比西河

赞比西河上的卡里巴水坝是非洲较大的水坝之一。它的建设是有争议的，南非风险管理研究所的2015年报告包括一个警告，大坝是急需维护。赞比西河管理局（ZRA）可提供若干选择，以解决这一问题。 ZRA特别感兴趣的有三个选项：

（选项1）修复现有的Kariba水坝（选项2）重建现有的Kariba水坝，或（选项3）拆除Kariba水坝，并更换为沿赞比西河的一系列十到二十个较小的水坝。

这个问题有两个主要要求：

要求1 ZRA管理要求对所列出的三个选项进行简要评估，并提供足够的详细信息，以提供与每个选项相关的潜在成本和收益的概述。此要求的长度不应超过两页，除了主要报告之外，还必须提供此页面。

要求2对选项（3）进行详细分析 - 删除Kariba水坝，并用赞比西河沿岸一系列十至二十个较小的水坝替代。这个新的水坝系统应该与现有的Kariba水坝具有相同的整体水管理能力，同时为现有的水坝提供与卡里巴湖相同或更高水平的保护和水管理选择。您的分析必须支持关于沿赞比西河新坝的数量和位置的建议。

在您的要求2报告中，您应该包括一个策略，用于调节通过您的新多坝系统的水流，从而在安全和成本之间提供合理的平衡。除了解决已知或预测的正常水循环，您的战略应为ZRA经理提供指导，解释和证明应当采取的行动，以正确处理应急水流情况（即洪水和/或长期低水位状况）。您的策略应为从最大预期排放到最小预期排放的极端水流提供具体指导。最后，您的建议战略应包括解决对赞比西河不同地区暴露于极端条件最有害影响的位置和时间长度的任何限制的信息。

您的MCM提交应包括三个要素：标准的1页MCM摘要表，1-2页简要评估报告（要求1）和您的主要MCM解决方案（要求2）不超过20页，最多提交23页面。注意：您加入的任何附录或参考页面不会计入23页的上限。

英文原文：

The Kariba Dam on the Zambezi River is one of the larger dams in Africa. Its construction was controversial, and a 2015 report by the Institute of Risk Management of South Africa included a warning that the dam is in dire need of maintenance. A number of options are available to the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) that might address the situation. Three options in particular are of interest to ZRA:

(Option 1) Repairing the existing Kariba Dam, (Option 2) Rebuilding the existing Kariba Dam, or (Option 3) Removing the Kariba Dam and replacing it with a series of ten to twenty smaller dams along the Zambezi River.

There are two main requirements for this problem:

Requirement 1 ZRA management requires a brief assessment of the three options listed, with sufficient detail to provide an overview of potential costs and benefits associated with each option. This requirement should not exceed two pages in length, and must be provided in addition to your main report.

Requirement 2 Provide a detailed analysis of Option (3) - removing the Kariba Dam and replacing it with a series of ten to twenty smaller dams along the Zambezi river. This new system of dams should have the same overall water management capabilities as the existing Kariba Dam while providing the same or greater levels of protection and water management options for Lake Kariba that are in place with the existing dam. Your analysis must support a recommendation as to the number and placement of the new dams along the Zambezi River.

In your report for Requirement 2, you should include a strategy for modulating the water flow through your new multiple dam system that provides a reasonable balance between safety and costs. In addition to addressing known or predicted normal water cycles, your strategy should provide guidance to the ZRA managers that explains and justifies the actions that should be taken to properly handle emergency water flow situations (i.e. flooding and/or prolonged low water conditions). Your strategy should provide specific guidance for extreme water flows ranging from maximum expected discharges to minimum expected discharges. Finally, your recommended strategy should include information addressing any restrictions regarding the locations and lengths of time that different areas of the Zambezi River should be exposed to the most detrimental effects of the extreme conditions.

Your MCM submission should consist of three elements: a standard 1 page MCM Summary Sheet, a 1-2 page brief assessment report (Requirement 1), and your main MCM solution (Requirement 2) not to exceed 20 pages for a maximum submission of 23 pages. Note: Any appendices or reference pages you include will not count towards the 23 page limit.